A Deep Dive Into e-Commerce Gross Margin - ABEL Finance
Tesla second-quarter revenue misses, shares tumble 11%. Tesla Inc on Wednesday reported lower-than-expected revenue and a fall in gross margins for the second quarter, sending its shares down nearly 11% in extended trading.
PRPL Nurples- Why purple valuation just might make your NIPS hard - DD inside
All- I have received hundreds of DM asking where the stock is going. I have received questions such as: where do you think it stops, is it over valued, undervalued, should my mom invest, should i Yolo, should i sell and take profits? blah, blah blah. Here is some DD- stop asking me about where this ends up because I don't know for sure but I have some Feely Good estimates. I hope this post makes your nipples hard and if it doesn't you're probably a gay bear. I am going to give you a quick run down of what my expectations are for Q2 earnings and it will include the good, the bad and the ugly. The ugly being the warrant accrual that will hurt GAAP. First of all, There is little that needs to be determined for Q2 top-line as they have already released April and May Sales. April Sales Came in around ~62M based on my math and May Sales came in at 88M and some change. Based on these numbers, we can safely assume that we will at a minimum have somewhere around 225M in revenue for the quarter by using the average of April and May to determine June. I believe 225M to be on the low side and I have continued to up my estimates as I believe E-commerce is still thriving, especially purple. Purple continues to climb the web traffic ladder and has moved up another ~500 spots to be the 13,000 most popular site in the world. For simplicity sake, I am going to use some historical numbers to estimate profits. If you'll look at previous posts that I've made then you'll see how I arrived at these numbers. There are some quick napkin calculations below. We can safely assume that the average wholesale selling price of a mattress is ~1350 dollars and we can assume that GM for wholesale is around 30%. This means the average cost of a mattress to manufacture is ~945 on average. From my previous posts, we knew that pre Covid the business was split by units, not by gross sales. On average, wholesale consumed 50% of capacity and DTC consumed 50% of capacity. In order to determine average DTC selling price then we can equation .5*1350 + .5*(DTC Price) = 1900. PRPL indicated their average selling price per mattress was ~1900.00, I found this in their s-3. ----------------------------------- .5*1350 + .5*(DTC Price) = 1900=========== DTC average price is 2450.00, 1350 is average Wholesale price. DTC Margin is ~62% Estimated Wholesale Margin ~30% Estimated ---------------------------------- Historically, advertising costs have been about 30% of revenue. I have been tracking advertisement for purple and from a TV cost standpoint, they have not increased their commercial count at all in the last three months. See link, PRPL is still only performing 125 commercials per day. This commercial rate has held steady for 6 months. https://www.ispot.tv/brands/tqU/purple-mattress I believe purple has increased their ad spend online but I believe it will be proportional to their new capacity on a unit basis. Previously purple had 6 Machines of capacity and spent 38M in advertising, I believe they will spend (7/6)*38M which is 44M or roughly 15M per month. Just because revenue is up, doesn't mean they will spend more per unit- they are capacity constrained and that is terribly inefficient. ---------------------------------- The following table shows my best guesses on their major category costs. This includes the gross Margin and the other costs subtracted from the Gross Margin.
Total Revenue net revenue effect
Gross Margin from Wholesale
Gross Margin from DTC
Research and Development
Profit Non GAAP
66.5M or 1.23 EPS
Profit GAAP Estimated
$31.5M or .59 EPS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If we used 66.5M, PRPL would report 1.23 EPS on an adjusted Basis. The warrant Accrual will unfavorably push the EPS down on a GAAP basis and we will likely see something around .59 EPS. If they can achieve this for the next 4 quarters then in a years time there is a huge potential for stock increases based on the following P/E's.
Non GAAP Est.
Stock price assuming 8x P/E
Stock Price assuming 12x P/E
Stock Price assuming 15x P/E
Stock Price assuming 20x P/E
People may say that this is super inaccurate..... but if you look at the following cash statement then you will realize that PRPL has been generating more than 1M per day in cash for the last two months - that is absolutely insane. purple has generated 70M in cash in 60 days. Mark my words, PRPL is going to be more profitable than TPX this quarter. TPX reported earnings of .68 EPS today on revenue of 665M. TPX is trading at 80+ per share. if purple reports a similar .68 EPS then it would be valued about 60% lower than TPX on an EPS basis. if purple posts EPS of ~1 dollar then it would be undervalued as compared to TPX by about 80%. I hope your NIPS are tender now. Hope this helps you understand why I believe PRPL to be so undervalued.
PRPL earnings is tomorrow, 8/13, after hours. Any other date is wrong. Robinhood is wrong (why are you using Robinhood still!?!). I'm going to take you through my earnings projections and reasoning as well the things to look for in the earnings release and the call that could make this moon even further.
I make the assumption that Purple is still selling every mattress it can make (since that is what they said for April and May) and that this continued into June because the website was still delayed 7-14 days across all mattresses at the end of June. May Revenue and April DTC: The numbers in purple were provided by Purple here and here. April Wholesale: My estimate of $2.7M for Wholesale sales in April comes from this statement from the Q1 earnings release: " While wholesale sales were down 42.7% in April year-over-year, weekly wholesale orders have started to increase on a sequential basis. " I divided Q2 2019's wholesale sales evenly between months and then went down 42.7%. June DTC: This is my estimate based upon the fact that another Mattress Max machine went online June 1, thus increasing capacity, and the low end model was discontinued (raising revenue per unit). June Wholesale:Joe Megibow stated at Commerce Next on 7/30 that wholesale had returned to almost flat growth. I'm going to assume he meant for the quarter, so I plugged the number here to finish out the quarter at $39.0M, just under $39.3M from a year ago. Revenue Expectations from Analysts (via Yahoo) https://preview.redd.it/notxd6hhbng51.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa0453414f467aa6c5bf72ce8a8046c0ae6e62a5 My estimate of $244M comes in way over the high, let alone the consensus. PRPL has effectively already disclosed ~$145M for April/May, so these expectations are way off. I'm more right than they are.
I used my estimates for Q3/Q4 2019 to guide margins in April/May as there were some one time events that occurred in Q1 depressing margins. June has higher margin because of the shift away from the low end model (which is priced substantially lower than the high end model). Higher priced models were given manufacturing priority.
Marketing and Sales Joe mentioned in the Commerce Next video that they were able to scale sales at a constant CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost). There's three ways of interpreting this:
Overall customer acquisition cost was constant with previous quarters (assume $36M total, not $93.2M), which means you need to add another $57M to bottom line profit and $1.08 to EPS, or
Customer Acquisition Costs on a unit basis were constant, which means I'm still overstating total marketing expense and understating EPS massively, or
Customer Acquisition Costs on a revenue basis were constant, which is the most conservative approach and the one I took for my estimate.
I straightlined the 2.2 ratio of DTC sales to Marketing costs from Q1. I am undoubtably too high in my expense estimate here as PRPL saw marketing efficiencies and favorable revenue shifts during the quarter. So, $93.2M General and Administrative A Purple HR rep posted on LinkedIn about hiring 330 people in the quarter. I'm going to assume that was relative to the pre-COVID furloughs, so I had June at that proportional amount to previous employees and adjusted April and May for furloughs and returns from furlough. Research and Development I added just a little here and straight lined it.
Interest Expense Straightlined from previous quarters, although they may have tapped ABL lines and so forth, so this could be under. One Time and Other Unpredictable by nature. Warrant Liability Accrual I'm making some assumptions here.
We know that the secondary offering event during Q2 from the Pearce brothers triggered the clause for the loan warrants (NOT the PRPLW warrants) to lower the strike price to $0.
I can't think of a logical reason why the warrant holders wouldn't exercise at this point.
Therefore there is no longer a warrant liability where the company may need to repurchase warrants back.
The liability accrual of $7.989M needs to be reversed out for a gain.
What to Watch For During Earnings (aka Reasons Why This Moons More)
Analysts, Institutionals, and everyone else who uses math for investing is going to be listening for the following:
Warrant Liability Accrual
Capacity Expansion Rate
CACs (Customer Acquisition Costs)
New Product Categories
Cashless Exercise of PRPLW warrants
Margin Growth This factor is HUGE. If PRPL guides to higher margins due to better sales mix and continued DTC shift, then every analyst and investor is going to tweak their models up in a big way. Thus far, management has been relatively cautious about this fortuitous shift to DTC continuing. If web traffic is any indicator, it will, but we need management to tell us that. Warrant Liability Accrual I could be dead wrong on my assumptions above on this one. If it stays, there will be questions about it due to the drop in exercise price. It does impact GAAP earnings (although it shouldn't--stupid accountants). Capacity Expansion Rate This is a BIG one as well. As PRPL has been famously capacity constrained: their rate of manufacturing capacity expansion is their growth rate over the next year. PRPL discontinued expansion at the beginning of COVID and then re-accelerated it to a faster pace than pre-COVID by hurrying the machines in-process out to the floor. They also signed their manufacturing space deal which has nearly doubled manufacturing space a quarter early. The REAL question is when the machines will start rolling out. Previous guidance was end of the year at best. If we get anything sooner than that, we are going to ratchet up. CACs (Customer Acquisition Costs) Since DTC is the new game in town, we are all going to want to understand exactly where marketing expenses were this quarter and, more importantly, where management thinks they are going. The magic words to listen for are "marketing efficiencies". Those words means the stock goes up. This is the next biggest line item on the P&L besides revenue and cost of goods sold. New Product Categories We heard the VP of Brand from Purple give us some touchy-feely vision of where the company is headed and that mattresses was just the revenue generating base to empower this. I'm hoping we hear more about this. This is what differentiated Amazon from Barnes and Noble: Amazon's vision was more than just books. Purple sees itself as more than just mattresses. Hopefully we get some announced action behind that vision. This multiplies the stock. Cashless Exercise of PRPLW Warrants I doubt this will be answered, even if the question is asked. I bet they wait until the 20 out of 30 days is up and they deliver notice. We could be pleasantly surprised. If management informs us that they will opt for cashless exercise of the warrants, this is anti-dilutive to EPS. It will reduce the number of outstanding shares and automatically cause an adjustment up in the stock price (remember kids, some people use math when investing). I'm hopeful, but not expecting it. The amount of the adjustment depends on the current price of the stock. Also, I fully expect PRPL management to use their cashless exercise option at the end of the 20 out of 30 days as they are already spitting cash.
I've made some updates to the model, and produced two different models:
Warrant Liability Accrual Goes to Zero
Warrant Liability Accrual Goes to $47M
I made the following adjustments generally:
I reduced marketing expenses signifanctly based upon comments made by Joe Megibox on 6/29 in this CNBC video to 30% of sales (thanks u/deepredsky).
I reduced June wholesale revenue to 12.6M to be conservative based upon another possible interpretation of Joe's comments in this video here. It is a hard pill to swallow that June wholesale sales would be less than May's. The only reasoning I can think of is if May caused a large restock and then June tapered back off. The previous number of $19.0M was still a retrenchment from the 40-50% YoY growth rate. I'm going to keep the more conservative number (thanks again u/deepredsky).
I modified the number of outstanding shares used for EPS calculations from 53M (last quarters number used on the 10-Q) to almost 73M based upon the fact that all of the warrants and employee stock options are now in the money. Math below. (thanks DS_CPA1 on Stocktwits for pointing this out)
Now that we have established that coliseum still has not exercised the options as of july 7, and that purple needs to record as a liability the fair value of the options as of june 31, we now need to determine what that fair value is. You state that since you believe that there is no logical reason that coliseum won't redeem their warrants "there is no longer a warrant liability where the company may need to repurchase warrants back." While I'm not 100% certain your logic here, I can say for certain that whether or not a person will redeem their warrants does not dictate how prpl accounts for them.
The warrant liability accrual DOES NOT exist because the warrants simply exist. The accrual exists because the warrants give the warrant holder the right to force the company to buy back the warrants for cash in the event of a fundamental transaction for Black Scholes value ($18 at the end of June--June 31st that is...). And accruals are adjusted for the probability of a particular event happening, which I STILL argue is close to zero. A fundamental transaction did occur. The Pearce brothers sold more than 10M shares of stock which is why the exercise price dropped to zero. (Note for DS_CPA1 on Stocktwits: there is some conflicting filings as to what the exercise price can drop to. The originally filed warrant draft says that the warrant exercise price cannot drop to zero, but asubsequently filed S-3, the exercise price is noted as being able to go to zero. I'm going with the S-3.) Now, here is where it gets fun. We know from from the Schedule 13D filed with a July 1, 2020 event date from Coliseum that Coliseum DID NOT force the company to buy back the warrants in the fundamental transaction triggered by the Pearce Brothers (although they undoubtably accepted the $0 exercise price). THIS fundamental transaction was KNOWN to PRPL at the end Q4 and Q1 as secondary filings were made the day after earnings both times. This drastically increased the probability of an event happening. Where is the next fundamental transaction that could cause the redemption for cash? It isn't there. What does exist is a callback option if the stock trades above $24 for 20 out of 30 days, which we are already 8 out of 10 days into. Based upon the low probability of a fundamental transaction triggering a redemption, the accrual will stay very low. Even the CFO disagrees with me and we get a full-blown accrual, I expect a full reversal of the accrual next quarter if the 20 out of 30 day call back is exercised by the company. I still don't understand why Coliseum would not have exercised these. Regardless, the Warrant Liability Accrual is very fake and will go away eventually.
ONE MORE THING...
Seriously, stop PMing me with stupid, simple questions like "What are your thoughts on earnings?", "What are your thoughts on holding through earnings?", and "What are your thoughts on PRPL?". It's here. Above. Read it. I'm not typing it again in PM. I've gotten no less than 30 of these. If you're too lazy to read, I'm too lazy to respond to you individually.
$PSTG: PURE STORAGE for them, PURE TENDIES for you
This is actually my first DD I've ever posted so fuck you and forgive me if this doesn't work out for you.I've been looking at $PSTG for a while now and if my buying power didn't get so fucked from my decision to buy 8/7 UBER puts, I would have been already all over this play. What had got me looking into Pure Storage was an unusual options activity alert. I've looked into this company before but didn't entirely understand what they do. Now after looking at them again, I'm still not exactly sure wtf they do....BUT I've gotten a better clue. Basically what I got from my research is that these guys fuck with "all-FLASH data storage solutions (enabling cloud solutions and other low-latency applications where tape/disk storage does not meet the needs)."......and ultimately what this all means to me is that these are the motherfuckers making those stupid fast laser money printers with the rocket ships attached. And that's something I'm interested in. Now, here is the DailyDick you all degenerates have all been fiending for: Fundamentally: PureStorage remains one of the few hardware companies in tech that is consistently growing double motherfucking digits, yet remains constantly cucked and neglected by investors (trading at 1.9x EV/Sales). https://preview.redd.it/ek7ugjsewnf51.png?width=1118&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9c7e72c95e450a105e44223937422d896eeeb21 The 36 Months beta value for PSTG stock is at 1.62. 74% Buy Rating on RH. PSTG has a short float of 7.28% and public float of 243.36M with average trading volume of 3.16M shares. This was trading at around $18 on Wednesday 8/5 when I started writing this and as of right now, it's about $17.33 💸 The company has a market capitalization of ~$4.6 billion. In the last quarter, PSTG reported a ballin'-ass profit of $256.82 million. Pure Storage also saw revenues increase to $367.12 million. IMO, they should rename themselves PURE PROFIT. As of 04-2020, they got the cash monies flowing at $11.32 million . The company’s EBITDA came in at -$62.81 million which compares very fucking well among its dinosaur ass peers like HPE, Dell, IBM and NetApp. Pure Storage keeps taking market share from them old farts while growing the chad-like revenue #s of 33% in F2019, 21% in F2020, and 12% in F1Q21. Chart of their financial growth since IPO in 2015: https://preview.redd.it/gwlmy82v4nf51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6508cd5f641da4086b70d8b8007da034e982fd7 At the end of last quarter, Pure Storage had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $1.274B, compared with $1.299B as of Feb 2, 2020. The total Debt to Equity ratio for PSTG is recording at 0.64 and as of 8/6, Long term Debt to Equity ratio is at 0.64.Earning highlights from last quarter:
Revenue $367.1 million, up 12% year-over-year
Subscription Services revenue $120.2 million, up 37% year-over-year
GAAP operating loss $(84.9) million; non-GAAP operating loss $(5.4) million
Operating cash flow was $35.1 million, up $28.5 million year-over-year
Free cash flow was $11.3 million, up $29.0 million year-over-year
Total cash and investments of $1.3 billion
I bolded the Subscription Services Revenue bullet because to me that's a big deal. Pure Storage keeps them coming back with products such as Pure-as-a-service and Cloud Block Store and everybody knows that the recurring revenue model is best model. Big ass enterprises buy storage from vendors such as Pure Storage in the cloud to prevent vendor lock-in by the cloud providers. $$$ >!💰< What are Pure Storage's other revenue drivers? Well these motherfuckers also have the products to address the growth of Cloud storage as well as the products to drive the growth of on-prem storage. For on-prem data center, Pure sells Flash Array to address block storage workloads (for databases and other mission-critical workloads) and FlashBlade for unstructured or file data workloads. On-prem storage revenue is mainly driven by legacy storage array replacement cycle. https://preview.redd.it/01su6chrwnf51.png?width=1129&format=png&auto=webp&s=16e6a705f9392291bc0c3932c815802d9101365e So far, it seems like Pure Storage's obviously passionate and smart as fuck CEO has been spot on with his prediction of the flash storage sector's direction. Also seems like he's not camera shy either. Pure Storage's "Pure-as-a-Service and Cloud Block Store" unified subscription offerings is fo sho gaining momentum it. This shit is catching on with enterprises, both big and small. COVID-19 increased the acceleration of our digital transformation and the subsequent shift to the cloud. This increased demand in data-centers is going to drastically help Pure Storage's future top and bottom line. To top it off, NAND prices are recovering! (inferred from MU earnings). I expect Pure Storage to get some relief on the pricing front because of this which obviously in turn should improve revenues. PSTG's numbers look pretty good to me so far but are they a good company overall? Even when scalping and trading, I don't like to fuck with overall shitty companies so I always check for basic things like customer satisfaction, analyst ratings/targets, broad-view industry trends, and hedge fund positioning.. that sort of thing.Pure Storage stands out in all of these fields for me. https://preview.redd.it/4n0e5nve5of51.png?width=373&format=png&auto=webp&s=495416bb6f5a2dab77f3ac483ca4d9510b39037c Customers like Dominos Pizza and many others all seem to be happy AF with no issues. I can hardly even find a negative review online. Their products seems to be universally applauded. Gartner and other third party independent analysts also consider Pure Storage's product line-up some of the best in the industry. The industry average for this sector is a piss poor 65.Pure Storage has a 2020 Net Promoter Score of 86 https://preview.redd.it/3w51io8yvmf51.png?width=698&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f7d06825d0ad9d126216e5069af2f9c3636f86a Enterprises are upgrading their existing storage infrastructure with newer and more modern data arrays, based on NAND flash. They do this because they're forced to keep up with the increasing speed of business inter-connectivity. This shit is the 5g revolution sort to speak of the corporate business world. Storage demands and needs aren't changing because of the pandemic and isn't changing in the future. The newer storage arrays are smaller, consume less power, are less noisy and do not generate excess heat in the data center and hence do not need to be cooled like the fat fucks at IBM need to be. Flash storage arrays in general are cheaper to operate and are extremely fast, speeding up applications. Pure Storage by all accounts makes the best storage arrays in the industry and continues to grow faster than the old school storage vendors like bitchass NetApp, Dell, HPE and IBM. Pure Storage’s market share was 12.7% in C1Q20 and was up from 10.1% in the prior year - LIKE A PROPER HIGH GROWTH COMPANY.HPE, NetApp and IBM, like the losers they are, lost market share.According to blocksandfiles.com, AFA vendor market share sizes and shifts are paraphrased below:
“Dell EMC – 34.8% (calculated $766m) vs. 33.7% a year ago
NetApp – 19.3% at $425m vs. 26.7% a year ago
Pure Storage – 12.7% at calculated $279.7m vs. 10.1% a year ago
Didn’t see one posted yet so let this be the megathread that cliff can sticky or whatever. I’ll update this as info comes in and maybe live blog the call if I make it to my computer in time Webcast info can be found at: https://ir.tesla.com/events/event-details/tesla-inc-q2-2020-financial-results-and-qa-webcast The call starts at 2:30pm PDT Q2 report: https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f41f4254-f1cc-4929-a0b6-6623b00475a6 Call live blog (times in PDT): 2:30: "Call starting shortly" 2:32: Tesla director of investor relations 2:33: Elon opening remarks. Good job to the Tesla team. 4th consecutive profitable quarter. Auto industry is down, but Tesla is up. Next gigafactory is just north of Austin, Texas (15 min from downtown Austin) on the Colorado river. "Boardwalk" and "ecological paradise." Cyber truck, Semi, and 3&y for eastern half of North America. Fremont will do S&X for worldwide and 3&Y for western half of NA. Shout out to Tulsa. Tesla solar is the cheapest in the US. 30% cheaper than US average. $1.49/w. New Tesla Model S has a range over 400 miles. 2:39: FSD crap 2:40: Thank you Tesla team again for a full year of profitability. 3 new factories within the next year. "So much to be excited about"! "Never been more excited for the future of Tesla" 2:42: CFO Saved costs by laying employees off Continue reducing costs $48M FSD recognized Megapack is profitable Questions from institutional investors: Q: *missed the first question, sorry* Q: Vision for the future A: FSD on all vehicles. Biggest value increase of any company. Q: AP. Upcoming self driving milestones A: Major milestone is transition from "2.5D" (pictures) to "4D" (video) environment. Later this year. Big improvement to process video instead of pictures for FSD... Better than humans. "Orders of magnitude reliability" better. Elon thinks computers are smart. Q: Alien Dreadnought A: Putting more work into manufacturing engineering to make the machine that makes the machine. GF1 is alien dreadnought version 0.5. Working towards 1.0. GF Shanghai makes better cars than Fremont. Berlin Model Y will look the same but have more advanced architecture. Integrating design and manufacturing. Vertical integration is important. Increasing CapEx efficiency. "Tesla loves manufacturing!" Q: How many can Tesla produce in Texas A: "Right now, 0. Long term, a lot." Retail: Q: Tesla Energy A: Long term Tesla Energy will be same size as Tesla Automotive. Solar, wind, and batteries. Grid scale storage will expand. Auto-bidder is autopilot for battery storage; Like high frequency trading. Makes sure the battery is working correctly and grid satisfied. Main thing about Tesla is cell production at an affordable price (Tesla doesn't manufacture cells though? - me). "Talk more about this at battery day." Q: Tesla Semi production plans A: Production will start next year. First few units will be used by Tesla. Mainly between Fremont and Reno/Sparks. Some early units will go to some early adopters. Semi will be awesome. Semi will use nickel based cells. Passenger vehicles will use iron based cells; range of maybe 300 miles in the Chinese market. Use very little cobalt in cells already. Q: Why is Tesla removing the standard range vehicles A: "Mining companies, please mine more nickel at high volume." Tesla will sign a long term contract. New normal for range will be ~300 miles. Q: What is the hold up of Tesla insurance outside of California A: "Joking before call about quarterly insurance question." "Version 0.9" in California. Use the data captured in the car to assess probability of crash and use that for premium. Take the California product and use it in other states or make other states better; going with the latter. Handful of states by the end of the year. Regulatory approval will be needed. Version 2, Version 3, etc. as they go forward. Car will let you know to "drive better if you want a lower premium." Elon: "#1 thing to take from this call is that Tesla is hiring ... especially insurance." Tesla insurance will be provided for Tesla Network car sharing; not required. Investors on the line: Q: Gross margin of vehicles different between factories. A: GM increased in China. Model Y was profitable in first quarter of production. Model Y is more expensive than Model 3 to produce, but will become closer to the same. Locally sourcing components is "literally rising 5%-10% price improvement per month." Suppliers are eager to support Berlin GF. Q: Is Tesla aiming for industry leading gross margin. EV credits A: "We don't run the business to rely on regulatory credits." Revenue from FSD. OpEx continues to come down. I have to go, so this is it for the call live blogging
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) es una compañía multinacional estadounidense dedicada principalmente a los medios de comunicación masivos y a la industria del entretenimiento. Su sede está en Burbank, California, EEUU. La compañía cotiza bajo el ticker DIS, en Nueva York, a un precio de US$ 127,44 al 23/8/2020. Goza de un tamaño prominente, teniendo 223 mil empleados y una capitalización de mercado de 230.292M de dólares. Disney integra el índice Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) desde 1991, y también integra el S&P 100 y el S&P 500. Evaluando más en detalle el desempeño de la acción, la acción cotiza US$ 127,44 al 23/8/2020. Hace aproximadamente un año, el 26/8/2019 la acción cotizaba a US$ 137,26 lo que representa una caída aproximada del 7,15% anual (TTM). La caída es mas pronunciada YTD, Disney cotizaba US$ 148,2 a principios de año, por lo que al día de hoy la caída seria del 14%. No obstante, la acción a recuperado bastante valor después de la caída pronunciada que sufrió en Febrero-Marzo, llegando a cerrar a US$ 85,76 el 23/3/20 (habiendo subido un 48% desde entonces). Es para destacar que desde dicha caída se vio un significativo incremento en el volumen operado del papel. Mirando brevemente las medias móviles, vemos que la cotización actual esta por encima del promedio de 30 días (US$ 122,73), del de 90 días (US$ 115,98) y de 200 días (US$ 124,12). Con respecto al mercado, al 25/8, desde comienzo de año Disney se desempeñó por debajo del S&P 500 (5,7%), y del DJIA (-2,15%), con desempeño de -12,42% YTD. La compañía fue fundada en 1923 por los hermanos Walt y Roy Disney. A lo largo de su historia, Disney se consolidó como líder en la industria de animación estadounidense y luego diversificó sus negocios dedicándose a la producción de películas live-action, televisión y parques temáticos. A partir de 1980 Disney creo y adquirió diversas divisiones corporativas, para penetrar en mercados que fueran mas allá de sus marcas insignia orientadas a productos familiares. Disney es conocida por su división de estudios cinematográficos (The Walt Disney Studios), que incluye Walt Disney Pictures, Walt Disney Animation Studios, Pixar, Marvel Studios, Lucasfilm, 20th Century Studios, Searchlight Pictures y Blue Sky Studios. Otras unidades y segmentos de la compañía son Disney Media Networks; Disney Parks, Experiences and Products y Walt Disney Direct-to-Consumer & International. A través de estas unidades, Disney posee y opera canales de televisión como ABC, Disney Channel, ESPN, Freeform, FX y National Geographic, así como también venta de publicidad, merchandising y música. También tiene divisiones de producción teatral (Disney Theatrical Group) y posee un grupo de 14 parques temáticos alrededor del mundo. Es evidente la complejidad de las operaciones de Disney, por lo que vale la pena ir un poco mas a fondo en la composición de los segmentos operativos de Disney, en base al reporte anual de 2019 (mas representativo que el ultimo reporte trimestral en medio de la pandemia), donde encontramos cuatro segmentos relevantes. El primer segmento, denominado “Media Networks”, compuesto principalmente por los canales domésticos de TV, este segmento generó 24.827M US$ de ingresos en 2019 (un 34,7% del total). El segundo segmento es el de “Parks, Experiences and Products”, compuesto por los parques temáticos, resorts y cruceros de las compañías, así como también de las licencias de los nombres, personajes y marcas de la compañía y de los productos de merchandising propios, este segmento reportó 26.225M US$ de ingresos en 2019 (un 36,66% del total, el segmento mas relevante de la compañía). El tercer segmento, es el de “Studio Entertainment” que contiene las operaciones de producción de películas, música y obras de teatro, así como también los servicios de post-produccion. Este segmento reportó 11.127M US$ (un 15,55% del total). El ultimo segmento, quizás el mas interesante es “Direct-to-Consumer & International”, donde además de contener las operaciones internacionales de TV y servicios de distribución de contenido digital como apps y paginas web, se incluyen las unidades de servicios de streaming de Disney, compuestas principalmente por Hulu, ESPN+ y Disney+. Este sector reporto ingresos por 9.349M US$ (un 13,07%, enorme incremento respecto del 5,6% que reportó en 2018). Respecto a la distribución territorial de las operaciones, es notorio el bagaje del mercado doméstico (EEUU y Canadá) donde concentraron en 2019 el 72,6% de las operaciones. Vale destacar también que hubo un incremento significativo interanual de las operaciones en los mercados de Asia-Pacífico (del 9,3% al 11,2%) y en Latinoamérica y otros mercados (del 3,09% al 4,61%). En lo que respecta a la política de dividendos de la compañía, encontré registros de pago constante de dividendos desde al menos 1989. El ultimo dividendo fue el 13/12, habiendo pagado $0,88 y arrojando un dividend yield anual de 1,2%. La compañía decidió omitir el dividendo semestral correspondiente al primer semestre de 2020 por la pandemia del COVID-19. Evaluando un poco la posición financiera de la empresa, a junio de 2020, según el balance presentado, Disney tenia activos corrientes por 41.330M US$ y pasivos corrientes por 30.917M US$, lo que resulta en un working capital (activos corrientes netos, activos corrientes menos pasivos corrientes) de 10.413 US$. El working capital entonces representa el 33,68% de los pasivos corrientes (Con lo cual, el current ratio es de 1,34 apreciándose una mejoría respecto del 0,9 reportado en septiembre 2019). En relación con la deuda de largo plazo, la podemos estimar en 70.052M US$ (borrowings + other long-term liabilities), dado que en septiembre 2019 la cifra era de 51.889M US$, vemos que sufrió un aumento considerable (en el orden del 35%). Respecto a los flujos de efectivo de Disney, vemos que en lo que va del año fiscal (septiembre 2019-junio 2020) Disney reportó flujo de efectivo por operaciones por 5949M US$, casi lo mismo que reportó para todo el año fiscal 2019 (5984M US$). Viendo la evolución de 10 años del CF de operaciones:
CF de operaciones (mill. USD)
Dif. Anual %
Viendo la evolución en 10 años del flujo de efectivo de operaciones, vemos que en 2019 hubo una drástica reversión de la tendencia al alza que se venia reportando (con un 58,14% de caída interanual). Esto se debe en parte a la política de adquisiciones de la empresa, que vemos reflejado en el flujo de efectivo por inversiones, equivalente en 2019 a -15.096M US$ (muy por encima del promedio de 2010-2018, equivalente a -4179,4M US$). En lo relativo a las ganancias de la compañía, para el Q2 2020 Disney reportó pérdidas por 4721M US$ (contra una ganancia de 1760M US$ para el Q2 2019). La situación se atenúa considerando las cifras para los últimos nueve meses (Q4 2019-Q2 2020), donde Disney totalizó perdidas por 1813M US$. No obstante, la situación del COVID-19 distorsiona nuestro análisis a largo plazo, por lo que para analizar la evolución interanual desde los últimos 10 años, utilizare los datos de los reportes anuales (datando el ultimo de septiembre 2019).
Net Income (mill. USD)
Dif. Anual %
Como se puede ver en el cuadro, pese al revés sufrido por las obvias complicaciones de la pandemia, el historial de ganancias de Disney es sólido. La compañía tuvo en los últimos 10 años, 2 años de contracción en las ganancias (2017 y 2019), pero en términos generales, las ganancias crecieron a una tasa promedio del 13,02% los últimos 10 años. Para evaluar el crecimiento general estos 10 años, si tomamos el promedio de los primeros 3 años (2010-2012) y el promedio de los últimos 3 (2017-2019), las ganancias de Disney crecieron un 125,8%. Mirando un poco de ratios, analizaré el EPS (Earnings Per Share) de la acción. Para el Q2 2020, Disney presentó un EPS negativo, de -2,61, contra un 0,98 obtenido en el Q2 2019. Refiriéndonos al desempeño pre-pandemia, el EPS promedio anual de los últimos 5 años fue de 6,3 y el ultimo EPS anual reportado (septiembre 2019) estaba ligeramente por encima, alrededor de 6,68. En lo respectivo al Price/Earning, el P/E (TTM) al valor de la acción del 23/8 es de -208,9. No obstante, si eliminamos la distorsión producto de la pandemia, calculando las ganancias promedio de los últimos 3 años (de acuerdo con los reportes anuales), es de 18,38, lo cual es un valor aceptable dada la coyuntura de los últimos años. En lo que respecta al Price-To-Book (P/B) ratio, el book value a junio 2020, es de 50, por lo que el P/B (siempre al precio del 23/8) es de 2,54, un valor razonable dados los promedios de los sectores en los que Disney tiene incidencia. El ultimo ratio a analizar es Price/Assets (P/E*P/B) que, (usando P/E con promedio de las ganancias de los últimos 3 años) arroja un valor de 46,68. Sobre el soporte institucional de la compañía, Disney tiene un apoyo considerable, calculado en el 66,42% del flotante en manos de instituciones. Los tenedores líderes son Vanguard con el 8,22%; BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) con el 6,32% y State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) con el 4,19%. Otros tenedores significantes (1-2%) son Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), MorganStanley (NYSE:MS) y Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK). En lo respectivo al management de Disney, la primera consideración importante es respecto al legendario CEO de la compañía, Robert “Bob” Iger, quien, en febrero de este año, después de posponerlo por años, decidió dar un paso al costado como CEO de la compañía, dejando a cargo al director del segmento de Parques y Resorts, Bob Chapek. Esto duró poco, y en abril Iger volvió a tomar las riendas de la compañía. No obstante, es altamente probable que, una vez estabilizado el panorama Iger retome su frustrado plan de dar un paso al costado. En lo relativo a la compensación, Iger cobró 47.525.560 US$, los executive officers una remuneración promedio de 11.319.422 US$ y el empleado promedio de Disney cobró 52.184 US$. Una cosa que llama la atención del balance de Disney (septiembre 2019), es el incremento notorio del goodwill (de 31.269M US$ a 80.293M US$, un aumento del 157%). No obstante, este incremento puede deberse a la política de fusiones y adquisiciones de la compañía. Disney viene llevando en los últimos años una política de adquisiciones relativamente agresiva, ideada por el CEO Bob Iger, de las cuales podemos destacar 4 o 5 operaciones clave, la primera de ellas fue la adquisición de Pixar, la famosa empresa de animación que había despegado bajo la conducción de Steve Jobs y Ed Catmull, en 2006 por 7,4MM US$ (de esa adquisición se beneficiaron sacando películas muy exitosas como Up, Wall-E, Ratatouille, Toy Story 3, etc.). Otra adquisición clave, fue la compra de Marvel en 2009 por 4MM US$ (La última de sus películas Avengers: Endgame, la más taquillera de la historia de Disney, vendió entradas por 3MM US$). En 2012, Disney compró Lucasfilm (histórica productora de Star Wars), por 4,05MM US$, y posteriormente anunció una muy lucrativa tercera trilogía de Star Wars. Por último, en marzo de 2019, Disney concretó la adquisición de 2oth Century Fox, en marzo de 2019, por la extraordinaria cifra de 73MM US$, sus resultados aún están por verse. Analizar la competencia de Disney es algo trabajoso, dado la variedad de sectores en los que se involucra y la falta de compañías que abarquen tantos sectores como Disney. Considero que la compañía que más se aproxima en cuanto a sus operaciones y al volumen de las mismas es Comcast (NASDAQ:CMSCA), si bien Disney compite con numerosas empresas en numerosos sectores, como podrían ser, por ejemplo Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN) o Six Flags (NYSE:SIX) en el negocio de los parques temáticos; ViacomCBS (NYSE:VIAC) o Discovery Communications (NASDAQ:DISCA) en el negocio mediático; así como Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) o Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) en el negocio del streaming, sobre los cuales hablare más adelante. También compite con segmentos de negocios de conglomerados grandes como Sony (NYSE: SNE) o AT&T (NYSE:T). Observando a Comcast, el acérrimo rival, vemos que la capitalización bursátil es similar, siendo de 198.301M US$ para Comcast y de 234.538M US$ para Disney, así como los empleados, teniendo 190.000 (CMCSA) y 236.000 (DISN). El desempeño de ambas acciones es parejo, en términos generales Comcast tuvo mejor performance, sobre todo YTD (-3,47% contra -10,26%). En los márgenes y ratios también gana Comcast, supera ampliamente en gross margin (TTM) a Disney, con 56,78% contra 27,95% y en net margin (TTM) con 10,91% frente a un pobre -1,91%. El EPS (TTM) da 2,53 para Comcast contra -0,6 para Disney. Consecuentemente, Comcast pudo mantener un P/E positivo de 17,56. Si bien los números parecen positivos en la comparación para el lado de Comcast, me parece relevante destacar que lo mismo que fue su mayor ventaja comparativa (la composición de sus segmentos operativos), puede ser lo que la haga perder en la comparación a futuro, dada la absoluta supremacía que tiene la operatoria relacionada con la televisión, así como la falta de un segmento de negocios dedicado al streaming de video (sobre el cual también me referiré mas adelante). Para analizar el futuro, creo que es relevante hacer unas breves conclusiones sobre la actualidad. En primer lugar, los segmentos operativos mas afectados fueron el segmento de parques temáticos, resorts, etc. y el segmento de los estudios cinematográficos con lo cual los ingresos de Disney este último trimestre quedaron a cargo, principalmente, de los canales de TV (que sufrieron una breve baja del 2%) y de los servicios de streaming. Empezando por los sectores más afectados, respecto a la producción fílmica (Studio Entertainment), me parece que la situación no es crítica, claramente la situación de la pandemia redujo fuertemente los ingresos del sector (al haberse reducido lógicamente la asistencia a salas de cine). No obstante, el manejo del sector viene siendo exitoso hace años (en los últimos 2 años lanzaron 3 de las 4 películas más taquilleras de la historia de la compañía, Endgame, Infinity War, y el live-action de El Rey León), y no hay indicios de que esto vaya a cambiar en el futuro (hay un esquema de estrenos futuros interesante). En lo que respecta a los parques, las perspectivas no son tan buenas. La caída para el Q2 2020 fue del 85% en relación al Q2 2019. Es evidente que al haber una cuestión sanitaria de por medio, el turismo va a ser uno de los sectores mas afectados, habiendo sufrido una caída increíble en la primera mitad del año.  Actualmente, la actividad comercial de los parques temáticos está empezando a reanudarse, habiendo reabierto las operaciones en Walt Disney World en Florida, y estando a la espera de reabrir Disneyland en California, dada la incertidumbre de la pandemia. No obstante, la recuperación fue peor de lo esperado y a partir de Septiembre Walt Disney World recortará los horarios de sus parques. Asimismo, comparativamente, el desempeño de Universal Studios (propiedad de Comcast), parece ser mejor que el de Disney en esta reapertura. No obstante, es importante destacar el carácter de líder absoluto de Disney en este sector, con una competencia que difícilmente pueda igualar su posición, con lo cual si bien el desempeño en el corto plazo puede ser inferior al de la competencia, es altamente probable que recupere su posición dominante en el mediano-largo plazo. Es interesante ver, en tercer lugar, el segmento “Media Networks” que consiste principalmente en los canales de TV que Disney posee. Este sector no tuvo una caída significante (solo del 2% para el Q2 2020 en relacion al Q2 2019) en el corto plazo, pero en el largo plazo, es evidente que la tendencia del sector es a desaparecer. Las encuestas y reportes muestran un lento descenso año tras año de la audiencia, tanto de TV en vivo, TV diferida y radio. Con lo cual, a largo plazo, es previsible que este segmento sufra una disminución considerable en su volumen de operaciones. También es previsible (y así lo reflejan las encuestas), que el reemplazo de la TV tradicional sea protagonizado por los servicios de video streaming (VOD), es decir, por las operaciones del cuarto segmento (Direct-to-Consumer). Disney tiene hoy 3 servicios de streaming, Hulu, ESPN+, y Disney+ (ofrece los tres en un bundle que cuesta US$ 12,99). Como ya dijimos, el incremento de los ingresos por estos servicios durante el FY 2019 fue significante. Veamos la evolución de los subscriptores a estos servicios en lo que va del FY 2020 (es decir, Q4 2019, Q1 2020 y Q2 2020).
Some interesting news on value stocks in the stock market this week
It was a big week for companies beating expectations including a number of value stocks, trading on attractive valuations, reporting positive developments. Hibbett Inc, the athletic apparel retailer, $HIBB (trailing PE 10.20) issued outstanding guidance with Q2 sales expected to rise 70%. Revenues have been boosted by pent up demand, competitor closures and stimulus money. Brick-and-mortar same-store sales are expected to grow 60% and online sales are forecast to jump 200%. Most significant for future growth is Hibbett has been winning new customers with 25% of brick-and-mortar sales and 40% of online sales coming from new shoppers. Home builder PulteGroup $PHM (trailing PE 10.04) reported a remarkable rebound in demand as net new orders increased 50% in June. Home buyers, typically on higher incomes, appear to be less affected by COVID than the average and lower paid general public and, coupled with a “very limited supply of existing housing stock”, are driving a recovery in the housing market that are boosting home builders. PulteGroup’s CEO said the recovery in new home demand “was nothing short of outstanding.” New home construction jumped 17% and builder confidence rose to pre-pandemic levels after plunging in April. PulteGroup’s smaller peer Meritage Homes $MTH (trailing PE 10.59) reported a much bigger increase with a 32% jump in orders in the second quarter, 78% increase in net earnings, 20% revenue growth and strong margin improvement. Steven J. Hilton, $MTH chairman and chief executive officer said “Based on our current forecast, we believe we can generate between $4.0-4.3 billion in home closing revenue for the year, including $1.0-1.1 billion for the third quarter, with home closing gross margins around 21% for the third quarter and full year. We estimate that will translate to approximately $8.75-9.25 of diluted earnings per share for the full year,”. Thats 36% higher than consensus forecasts. Whirlpool $WHR (trailing PE 12.03) beat expectations with Q2 EPS of $2.15 (compared to estimates for 96 cents) and sales of $4 billion (estimates $3.6 billion). Both figures were down year-over-year, but the company pointed to “significant Covid-19 related disruptions.” CEO Marc Bitzer pointed to decisive actions and the resilence of Whirlpool’s business model while CFO Jim Peters highlighted the “solid cost takeout globally and strong cash flow improvement through disciplined working capital management,”. Skechers $SKX (trailing PE 13.44) reported an earnings beat on Thursday and said “Despite the challenges of the second quarter, we are optimistic about the early-stage recovery we are seeing in much of our business, including... the explosive growth of our e-commerce channel,”. Remarkably the company was able to grow cash balances by more than $175 million during the quarter through working capital and operating expense management. As a result net cash accounts for about 20% of Skecher’s valuation. Finally, with eBay (2020f PE 15.70) $EBAY due to report Q2 results on Monday, A Barron’s article said the stock was a buy with analysts (such as Edward Yruma at KeyBanc Capital Markets) expecting 23% to 26% growth as new sellers, consumer-facing improvements, and new payment options providing long-term tailwinds for the business. ” Yruma thinks eBay has regained lost market share during the Covid-19 pandemic and eventually should grow at rates exceeding overall e-commerce growth “as it both improves its consumer offering and takes advantage of stronger secular trends.” That means, primarily, that marketplace participants are increasingly realizing the importance of selling on multiple platforms. Trading on just 16x current year estimates, the valuation does look attractive. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are not suitable for everyone. Some of the stocks mentioned are risky small cap and/or highly speculative. Please do your own research.
What if I told you OPERATION 10 BAGS is actually OPERATION 20 BAGS - Courtesy of Albertsons (ACI)
Edit 1: I wouldn't rush to get in immediately with how poor SPY/QQQ look at open. Waiting until later in the day when they've maybe bottomed out is likely a better move Edit 2: Broader market looks to have stabilized. Congrats if you bought the dip. But now is time to get balls deep - I'm in the process of tripling my position u/trumpdiego 's post from a few days ago on ACI inspired me to do some research of my own, and it seems operation 10 bags may actually be a 20 bagger Post for reference:https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/huq9eq/operation\10_bags_brought_to_you_by_albertsons/) TL;DR: ACI is a leader in multiple sub-sectors that the market has been pumping lately. Their stock hasn’t increased as much as competitors in the last month, and it is cheaper than all of them on a P/E basis. Grocery prices have been rising faster than ever before. ACI is driving customers to their stores at a rate higher than anyone else in the industry. Online grocery sales were likely close to a record $19B in Q2. ACI’s online grocery sales were up +243% in April, and close to +220% this last quarter. Both of those last two facts suggest over $36B in quarterly revenue, compared to a street consensus of ~$23B. TL;DR for the TL;DR: Albertons Companies (ACI) 8/21 $20C’s are going to the moon when they report earnings before market open on Monday 7/27, but potentially sooner if any other online grocers report what you’re about to read below. And I'll show you exactly why referencing the data that the big bois use to evaluate investments. Primer for the type of autist who likes to know what he’s YOLOing options on: ACI is a food and drug retailer that offers grocery products, general merchandise, health and beauty care products, pharmacy, and fuel in the United States, with local presence and national scale. They also own Safeway, Tom Thumb , Acme, Shaw’s, Star Market, United Supermarkets, Vons, Jewel-Osco, Randalls, Market Street, Pavilions, Carrs, and Haggen as well as meal kit company Plated based in New York City. Additionally, ACI is the #1 or #2 grocer by market share in 68% of the 121 MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Area) they operate in. And here’s the good part: ACI is a leader in the online grocery shopping/delivery marketplace. They offer home delivery services in ~65% of their 2,200 stores, and have partnerships with Instacart, Uber Eats, and Grubhub to facilitate 1-2 hour delivery in 90% of their locations. Guess whose stock is up 75% this quarter? Grubhub. Think the market likes food delivery? Besides online grocery shopping, what else is surging due to COVID-19? Meal kits. And guess what, ACI is one of the only grocers with a meal kit offering. Demand is surging so much that Blue Apron (APRN) decided to go public on June 24th, and is already up 22.47% since then. Think the market likes meal kits? Now back to your regularly scheduled programming: Before I get into the industry and ACI specific numbers that make me TSLA levels of bullish on ACI – let me tell you what the market thinks. Q: “Why do I care what the market thinks? I’m smarter than it!” – Probably most of you. A: “Because it doesn’t matter how right you are if the market doesn’t agree, especially when YOLOing short term options. Market Trends: Over the last 30 days, ACI shares are up a meager 3.43%, currently trading at a 7.3x P/E multiple of consensus 2020 earnings. Check out what the most comparable companies to ACI have done over the last 30 days, and associated 2020 expected earnings P/E they are trading at: Grocery Outlet (GO): +11.30% (39.7x) Kroger (KR): +9.16% (11.9x) Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM): +15.71% (15.1x) So what does that tell you? The market loves grocery stores right now in corona times (no shit), and ACI is relatively the cheapest stock out of all of them. The performance of Grubhub (+75% in Q2), Blue Apron (+22.47% since 6/24/20 IPO), and literally every single online retailer tell you the market’s opinion on online shopping, food delivery, and meal kits as well. If ACI were to trade at KR’s 11.9x P/E, that would make the stock worth $26.15, +63% from close today. Wonder what that means for option tendies… Oh what’s that? You’re asking why ACI could start trading on par with KR at a 11.9x P/E? Great question! Let me get into why this sexy boi will print: Starting from a macro perspective, CPI: Food at Home (NSA) is the consumer price metric that tracks inflation in food prices as grocery stores and related establishments. After deflating -.16% in 2018 and inflating just .03% in 2019, CPI: Food at Home (NSA) is +4.74% thus far in 2020. Why is this? Food prices are historically correlated with Disposable Personal Income, which also increased at its highest rate ever through Q2’2020. So as long as big daddy Powell has the money printer going brrrrrr, Albertsons will be making more and more money on each sale. Now, this food price inflation does benefit every grocer. However, let’s take a look at the ID Sales (which is the grocer equivalent of same-store-sales) trends recently for ACI and its main competitors that I was able to find data on:
So through at least April, ACI has been in a class of their own when it comes to generating repeated traffic at their locations. Courtesy of the fine people at Morgan Stanley, we also know ID Sales were +16% in June (so you can deduce they were in the +17% to +20% range in May), and still up “double-digit percentage” thus far in July. So far we’re established that ACI is selling their products for the most they ever have, and generating more traffic at identical stores than all their competitors. This data is affirmed by JP Morgan’s foot traffic index which shows ACI taking customer from Kroger. But wait – here’s the sexy part: Time to forecast ACI’s online sales this quarter using published industry data: According to new research released 7/6/20 by Brick Meets Click and Mercatus, U.S. online grocery sales hit a record $7.2 billion in June, up 9% over May. Let’s do some quick maths and deduce that online grocery sales were $6.61B in May. Now let’s be super conservative and say May was a 20% increase over April (realistically I would guess closer to +5-10%), and that gives us $5.51B in online grocery sales in April. This means we likely had ~$19B in online grocery sales in Q2. As ACI represented 1.60% of the online grocery marketplace in 2019, that would imply $304M in online revenue this past quarter. This is very conservative though, as even after assuming a 20% drop in April relative to May, we also assumed their market share stayed at 1.60%. Remember those nice people at JPM who’s foot traffic tracker told us that ACI was stealing customers from KR? Well they also estimate ACI’s 1.60% market share in online groceries to reach 2.50%-2.80% in 2025, with a CAGR (cumulative average growth rate) of ~9% in market share per year. That means their 1.60% market share is likely 1.744% now. Take 1.744% of $19B, and:
!!!!That means $331.36M of online sales!!!!
Remember this number Now that we have an estimate for ACI’s online sales based on the broader industry trends, lets come up with an estimate using only company data: On their last earnings call, management noted that online sales had grown 83% in 2018, 39% in 2019, +278% in the first 12-weeks of 2020, and +243% in April (Remember this number too!). Can you hear your Robinhood account balance going brrrrr? If not, the oven is about to get turned up faster Jerome can print a milli: Math time! · ACI did ~$265.4M in online sales in 2018. Source: https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2019/11/04/albertsons-embraces-omnichannel-retail/#:~:text=Albertsons%20does%20not%20break%20out,%2461%20billion%20in%20total%20revenue. · That means they did ~370M in online sales in 2019. · ACI had $62.455B in 2019 revenue. · Which means 0.59% of their sales were online. · Working backwards off their Q2’19 revenue of $18.738B, we arrive at $111M in online revenue. · Let’s be conservative and assume some sequential decline from their April online sales growth (the second number you should have remembered) and put Q2 online sales at +220%.
!!!!That means $355M in online sales!!!!
Remember that first number I told you to keep in mind? $331.36M. Considering entirely different data sets were used to find each number, it may not be so crazy to think it could be a pretty accurate forecast of the online sales when they report earnings. But since you’re so smart I know you’re on the edge of your seat wondering what that would mean for their total revenue Let’s take the average of both forecasts, and use $343.18M as our forecast for online revenue. Given online sales were 0.59% of 2019 revenue, it would imply $58.166B in revenue this quarter, compared to the $22.78B street consensus estimate. Admittedly, online sales staying at .59% is unrealistic due to how many consumers would shop online instead of in the store. Here’s some more math to deduce the new percentage: · In 2018, 0.44% of their sales were online · When online sales rose 39% in 2019, the proportion went up to 0.59% · So a 39% increase in online sales led to a 0.15% greater contribution of online sales to total revenue · Therefore a 220% increase would mean a 0.345% increase in proportion of online sales, putting them at .935% of total sales
!!!!!That gives us $36.704B in revenue for this past quarter vs a consensus of just under $22.78B. A beat by over 60%!!!!!
If you’re one of the rare autists to realize that revenue is only one half of the earnings equation, and your costs are the equally as important second half: Let’s go back to our friends at JPM, in a recent research note, after mentioning the foot traffic ACI was taking from KR, they also noted that ACI has superior gross margins to KR, as their stores are strategically located further from aggressively low priced competitors such as Aldi and WalMart. Additionally, they praised ACI’s recent cost savings initiatives that have been underway for some time now, and believe they would lead to some of the best margins in the industry. So you’re telling me ACI is going to make way more money than anyone expects this quarter, while also having lower costs? That must mean call options are crazy expensive, right?? Wrong. The aforementioned option is trading at just $0.50. That means after earnings when the stock rips to $30, they could be worth $11, does a 2,100% return sound good to you too? And for you especially literate autists, the IV is only 91.61%.
ACI 8/21 $20C
Let’s ride this fucker to the moon
Happy to respond to any questions/comments on sources for some of the data I presented or anything else your autistic brain comes up with regarding ACI
Ronald Reagan is the 73-year-old Republican candidate and the current President. His running mate is current Vice President George Bush.
Walter Mondale is the 56-year-old Democratic candidate and the previous Vice President. His running mate is US Representative from New York Geraldine Ferraro.
Issues and Background
Within a year of taking office, President Reagan signed comprehensive tax reform legislation that exemplified his economic philosophy. The top marginal income rate was cut from 70% to 50%, and the rate on the lowest taxable bracket was reduced from 14% to 11%. The capital gains tax was reduced from 28% of 20%. Legislation in 1982, prompted by increases in the deficit, prevented the full tax cut aspirations of the 1981 legislation from going into effect. Reagan and his supporters credit his economic policies with the strong economic recovery since the beginning of 1983.
The last couple years have seen very large federal budget deficits, with the 1983 peak at a level unseen since immediately following World War II, even relative to GDP. Mondale has chosen to make this arguably his biggest domestic campaign issue. Mondale has argued that the "question of the deficit and getting interest rates down is the most important domestic problem of our time - nothing else compares with it." He has spoken in stark terms about the alleged stakes, saying:
The President's point that growth will cure the deficit is obviously not the case. The deficit will get worse even with growth. Thus it is a very severe problem that threatens our future, saddles our kids with a with a trillion dollars worth of debt, is making us into a debtor nation, is destroying our position in international commerce, driving up interest rates, and is making the budget increasingly unmanageable.
Further, Mondale has gone further in his gambit on making the deficit an election issue by pledging to raise taxes. In his nomination acceptance speech, Mondale said:
Whoever is inaugurated in January, the American people will have to pay Mr. Reagan's bills. The budget will be squeezed. Taxes will go up. And anyone who says they won't is not telling the truth to the American people. I mean business. By the end of my first term, I will reduce the Reagan budget deficit by two-thirds. Let's tell the truth. That must be done - it must be done. Mr. Reagan will raise taxes, and so will I. He won't tell you. I just did.
Specifically, the Mondale deficit reduction plan calls for $85 billion in new tax revenues and $105 billion in cuts in projected spending. The entirety of the new tax revenue is to be earmarked for a special fund to reduce the deficit. Any further new spending will be "pay as you go," requiring new revenue to cover the spending. The planned spending cuts are mostly decreases in the planned growth of spending, including for the military and Medicare, rather than outright cuts.
According to Mondale campaign advisers, a typical family of four with a gross annual income of $25,000 (OOC: ~$62,000 in 2020 dollars, same format for further parentheticals) will not see their taxes go up. However, by 1989, families making $25,000 to $35,000 (~$62,000 to $86,000) will see a tax increase of about $95 (~$200) families making up to $45,000 (~$111,000) will pay roughly $200 (~$500) more and families making $100,000 (~$250,000) will pay about $2,600 (~$6,400) more.
Republicans have of course criticized the Mondale plan sharply. Vice President Bush called it a "program for failure" that would stall the recovery. Reagan insists that deficit reduction must come through economic growth and reductions in wasteful government spending. Reagan describes a tax increase as a "last resort."
Religion and issues of morality have come up several times during this campaign. President Reagan favors a Constitutional amendment that would permit organized prayers in public schools that students can opt-out of. Mondale opposes the amendment. President Reagan also supports a Constitutional amendment banning abortions except when the life of the mother is at risk. Mondale is personally opposed to abortion but believes it should be a woman's individual choice. Mondale's running mate Geraldine Ferraro has received pushback for her statement that, "the President goes around calling himself a good Christian; I don't for a minute believe it," criticizing Reagan's policies as "unfair" and "discriminatory."
In fall 1983, following an internal power struggle in the country and pleas from other Caribbean nations, the United States invaded Grenada alongside several Caribbean nations. The invasion was successful, resulting in the establishment of a new interim government. Elections are intended to take place in the coming months. The Reagan Administration justified the intervention on the basis of protecting US medical students on the island. The UN General Assembly voted 108 to 9 to call the intervention a "flagrant violation of international law." Mondale raised questions about the invasion early on, but in the past couple months has spoken favorably of it.
The United States along with three European nations introduced a peacekeeping force into Lebanon in 1982, in the broader context of the Lebanese Civil War. US diplomatic and military forces have been the victim of a number of suicide bombings, in particular the 1983 bombings of Beirut barracks, killing 241 US military personnel. Mondale has been sharply critical of Reagan with respect to these bombings, arguing that there was plenty of warning to prevent them. Mondale has further argued that overall US policy in Lebanon has been marked by "unbelievable disorganization." In January, Mondale called for the withdrawal of US marines from Lebanon. Reagan argues that the US presence in Lebanon helped facilitate the withdrawal of Palestinian guerrilla fighters.
At no point in his first term thus far has President Reagan met with his Soviet counterpart, Konstantin Chernenko. Mondale has frequently criticized Reagan for this, and has promised he would hold annual summit meetings with Soviet leaders. Reagan has said that he would like a summit, but needs to feel sure it will produce results before it happens. More broadly, Reagan has described the necessary policy towards the Soviet Union as one of "credible deterrence and peaceful competition," though he has also not held back in his criticism of the Soviet Union, calling it just last year an "evil empire."
In 1979, the Sandinista National Liberation Front in Nicaragua overthrew the Somoza dictatorship and established a new government. Since then, counterrevolutionary forces including former pro-Somoza forces as well as disillusioned former Sandinistas, have engaged in armed conflict against the Sandinista government. Reagan cancelled economic aid to Nicaragua upon taking office, but has since said that there have been attempts to get along with the new government. However, Reagan has been sharply critical of Nicaragua's accused military buildup and "meddling" in El Salvador.
Mondale has criticized Reagan's "failed policies" in Central America and has promised that if elected, he would end all US military exercises in Central America, withdraw combat forces from Honduras, and "end the covert activities directed toward Nicaragua."
A CIA booklet became public this October which has raised questions about the nature of US covert activities in Nicaragua. As reported by the New York Times:
A Central Intelligence Agency document that became public this week tells Nicaraguan rebels how to win popular support and gives advice on political assassination, blackmail and mob violence. The 44-page booklet, titled ''Psychological Operations in Guerrilla Warfare,'' is a primer on insurgency. Most activity of this sort in Nicaragua has been paid for by the United States through the C.I.A. The primer explains how to kidnap and kill officials, blow up public buildings and blackmail ordinary citizens.
Ferraro and her husband have come under intense media scrutiny over their financial history, with accusations ranging from tax avoidance to connections to organized crime, pornography, and gambling. In response, the couple has relented in releasing several years of tax returns, and Ferraro has allowed the media hours of her time to ask questions related to her and her husband's finances. Most accusations against them have proven to be exaggerated, though there are still lingering questions regarding certain accounting errors that were made. For more technical details, see coverage by the New York Times or Washington Post.
Particularly following what some considered to be a sub-par first debate performance, some Democrats are openly raising the question of whether Reagan, 73, is too old to continue serving as President. Asked at a White House event whether age should be considered a legitimate issue, Reagan said jokingly of Mondale, "I'll challenge him to an arm-wrestle any time." Reagan's more vigorous second debate performance has led to a diminishing of the age discussion.
In June 1981, the Associated Press and Los Angeles Times reported on a rare lung infection in 5 young previously healthy gay men in Los Angeles. Since then, over 6,000 cases of "acquired immune deficiency syndrome" (AIDS) have been reported to public health officials. In April of this year, the cause of the disease was discovered, a retrovirus known as HTLV-III. According to the CDC, "most cases have been reported among homosexual men with multiple sexual partners, abusers of intravenous drugs, and Haitians, especially those who have entered the country within the past few years." The case fatality rate is extremely high. Scientists say the virus is mainly spread through sexual contact. There were two major developments just recently in October. First, the New York Times reported that saliva may be a possible source of transmission, though it remains unlikely that it is a "key mode of spread." Second, under pressure from Mayor Dianne Feinstein, San Francisco public health officials ordered a number of bathhouses and sex clubs geared towards homosexual men closed. Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services argue that this disease has become a top research priority for them, and that they expect to spend many millions of dollars on research grants and other efforts. However, some groups like the National Gay Task Force have criticized the government sharply and say that not nearly enough is being done. Many criticisms of the government and other institutions and groups of people are covered in the essay from last year famous in the gay community, "1,112 and Counting" by Larry Kramer, published in the New York Native. Neither Reagan nor Mondale have spoken of this disease on the campaign trail. OOC Note: There is no indication that AIDS was an issue in the presidential election. Even gay newspapers from this time did not relate the crisis much if at all to the presidential election. To the extent that government policy was discussed, it was often local policy. Why mention it then? Well, it's a similar situation to Japanese internment and the 1944 election. I know some of you will bring this up no matter what, understandably, and so I'd like to at the very least calibrate the discussion to the year of the election with proper context and background.
Platforms (Important note if this is influencing your vote: These are just excerpts, not everything is included and inclusion of a point in one set of excerpts does NOT mean the other party took the opposing stance or didn't mention it; also, especially in the modern era, a Presidential candidate may disagree with the party platform) Read the full 1984 Republican platform here. 10 Excerpts:
"We reaffirm our conviction that State and local governments closest to the people are the best and most efficient"
"The Republican Party pledges to continue our efforts to lower tax rates, change and modernize the tax system, and eliminate the incentive-destroying effects of graduated tax rates ... We therefore support tax reform that will lead to a fair and simple tax system and believe a modified flat tax—with specific exemptions for such items as mortgage interest—is a most promising approach"
"The President is denied proper control over the federal budget ... To remedy this, we support enhanced authority to prevent wasteful spending, including a line-item veto"
"We need coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, timely information about Fed decisions, and an end to the uncertainties people face in obtaining money and credit ... The Gold Standard may be a useful mechanism for realizing the Federal Reserve's determination to adopt monetary policies needed to sustain price stability"
"The greatest danger today to our international trade is a growing protectionist sentiment"
"The Republican Party has deep concern about gratuitous sex and violence in the entertainment media, both of which contribute to the problem of crime against children and women"
"We Republicans emphasize that there is a profound moral difference between the actions and ideals of Marxist-Leninist regimes and those of democratic governments, and we reject the notions of guilt and apology which animate so much of the foreign policy of the Democratic Party"
"Stable and peaceful relations with the Soviet Union are possible and desirable, but they depend upon the credibility of American strength and determination"
"We ... reaffirm our support for a human life amendment to the Constitution, and we endorse legislation to make clear that the Fourteenth Amendment's protections apply to unborn children"
"We affirm our country's absolute fight to control its borders ... Those desiring to enter must comply with our immigration laws ... Failure to do so not only is an offense to the American people but is fundamentally unjust to those in foreign lands patiently waiting for legal entry ... We will preserve the principle of family reunification"
"Instead of runaway deficits, a Democratic Administration will pursue overall economic policies that sharply reduce deficits, down interest rates, free savings for private investment, prevent another explosion of inflation and put the dollar on a competitive footing"
"We will pursue international negotiations to open markets and eliminate trade restrictions, recognizing that the growth and stability of the Third World depends on its ability to sell its products in international markets"
"The Environmental Protection Agency should receive a budget that exceeds in real dollars the agency's purchasing power when President Reagan took office, since the agency's workload has almost doubled in recent years"
"After four years in which the roll of dishonor in the Administration has grown weekly and monthly—from Richard Allen to Rita Lavelle, from Thomas Reed to James Watt—it is time for an end to the embarrassment of Republican cronyism and malfeasance"
"Violent acts of bigotry, hatred and extremism aimed at women, racial, ethnic and religious minorities, and gay men and lesbians have become an alarmingly common phenomenon ... A Democratic Administration will work vigorously to address, document, and end all such violence"
"In the year made famous by George Orwell, we can see the realization of many of his grimmest prophecies in the totalitarian Soviet state, which has amassed an arsenal of weapons far beyond its defensive needs"
"Sadly, Mr. Reagan has opted for the all too frequent American response to the unrest that has characterized Central America-military assistance ... Over the past 100 years, Panama. Nicaragua, and Honduras have all been occupied by U.S. forces in an effort to suppress indigenous revolutionary movements"
"A Democratic President will pursue a foreign policy that advances basic civil and political rights—freedom of speech, association, thought and religion, the right to leave, freedom of the integrity of the person, and the prohibition of torture, arbitrary detention and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment—and that seeks as well to attain basic, economic, social, and cultural rights"
"We support tough restraints on the manufacture, transportation, and sale of snub-nosed handguns, which have no legitimate sporting use and are used in a high proportion of violent crimes"
"...the Reagan Administration has acted as if deficits do not count ... The deficits are huge and are expected to get larger—and they are a major negative factor in everything from high interest rates to the third world debt crisis"
PRPL Nurps got twisted, How to interpret and move forward - I was wrong
Just about how I feel Alright ladies and Gentleman- Many of you gambled with me on a purple earnings play and it didn't quite materialize as expected - I hope many of you purchased some of the lower more conservative debit spreads as they should be profitable still. Current Moves I took some time on earnings day, after hours to unload some shares as well as warrants with the expectation that the sell off would push us down to around 20.00, it appears that the selloff is mostly done as we've dropped about 4.5 from Thursday intraday peak. I have begun selling cash secured puts for September expiration, 20.00 strike As I do not believe purple will drop past 18.65, which is the breakeven point for those puts. Awesome quarter but not as awesome as expected Alright, even though Purple didn't come close to my 225M estimate, it still had an amazing quarter in terms of fundaments. Purple achieved about 122M in revenue in Q1 and 165M in revenue in Q2, that is an impressive feat, especially considering they appeared to shutdown operations for a couple of weeks and that created deferred orders for Q3. Adjusted earnings of 60+ cents per share, this excludes one time charges. This is actually an impressive number and beat many of the analysts expectations. The headlines showing the miss reported on GAAP, not adjusted. Joe Megibow indicated that PRPL would have about 1B in capacity by the end of 2021, that is definitely an excellent reason to hold your investment or look for an entry. After the call there were still price upgrades from almost every analyst as the year over year growth is very very impressive, especially for a manufacturing company. Tip ranks price targets as of 11PM eastern Going forward I believe the worst of the sell off is over and I expect that we will likely trade in the 21-25 dollar range from now until the next earnings. I have since exited about 60K shares of stock and about 60K warrants as I believe cash secured puts are a better play for the next couple of months. I will be selling puts for 20.00. on my remaining shares I will be selling covered call with 30 strikes. I am also still holding my 22.5/25.00 debit spreads for October and I will hold my 25/30 and 25/35 debit spreads for January as I believe November could be a very very good earnings as the stock price will hopefully trade only slightly up and the accrual for warrants will be much smaller. Revenue possibilities for Q3. I believe that Q3 max revenue will likely be in the 200 Million range. This is due to PRPL running full production for 12 weeks instead of 10 and the additional 7th machine that is available for the entire quarter rather than just a single month of the quarter. I believe that Purple will not quite achieve 200M in revenue because there will be a shift into wholesale that will push down top line, slightly, this is based on the comments from the calls. I believe purple will likely only achieve about 15% more revenue in Q3 than Q2, which is still impressive. This is my quick envelope calculation. It is still early but I expect somewhere in the 180-190M range and gross Margin around 46-47%. Capital structure I was optimistic that this quarter would push us to a point where we could clean up the warrant situation but it appears that we will have another quarter of accruals and reversals. I was asked by u/indonesian_activist to detail the capital structure, I will try to do that in a follow on post as it is not as clean as I'd like but I don't believe it is a show stopper as the company is still producing healthy amounts of cash, gross margin improvement and market share improvement. The capital structure is also promising because the founders still have a large stake in the company. Founder led companies are very very good. My positions before and through earnings No I didn't sell anything before the call. The first transaction In my account on 8/13 is selling warrants for 5.00 (which is cheaper than they are going for now and cheaper than they went for at any other time that earnings day). i was hoping to re-purchase if the stock plummeted, which it didn't so it cost be about 75K between shares and warrants. I've broken down my first trade details and then shown a summary of every subsequent purchase. This is probably the last time I will go into this detail because it's time consuming, but i held every penny through earnings. First After hours trade on 8/13, just above 8/12. First trade is the 509.98 shown above, each following trade is above- goes from newest to oldest as the list goes down. Current Position as of tonight I sold 400 CSP contracts on Friday and I sold my 22.5 calls for about 1.00 on Friday as well as they were almost as expensive as the day I bought them. I am now holding a naked position as I have -2910 25.00 PRPL calls in the market. I am holding the remainder of my calls and debit spreads. I hope you guys made out ok- most of the more conservative spreads are still net positive. I will not lie about my moves but I also am not going to post my moves real time as sometimes they are time sensitive. https://preview.redd.it/wop4lqmsnhh51.jpg?width=444&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a20cd3225354ec8ecb02575d445f4edff29d7665 https://preview.redd.it/gjp9squwnhh51.jpg?width=435&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=36fc2b3e785fc78a8335385cd13f48b3277a9015 God speed Autists. Do your own research- I learned all my investing skills through Tik Tok. Matt
Long Thesis - Progyny - 100% upside - High-growth, profitable company is the only differentiated provider in a large, growing, and underserved market. PGNY’s high-touch, seamless offering helps them stand out against large insurance carriers.
Link to my research report on PGNY Summary High-growth, profitable company is the only differentiated provider in a large, growing, and underserved market. PGNY’s high-touch, seamless offering helps them stand out against large insurance carriers. Covid-19 has shown the importance of benefits for employees and will continue to be the key differentiator for those thinking of changing jobs. According to RMANJ (Reproductive Medicine Associates of New Jersey), 68% of people would switch jobs for fertility benefits. For employers, Progyny reduces costs by including the latest cutting-edge technology in one packaged price, thereby lowering the risk of multiples and increasing the likelihood of pregnancy, keeping employees happy with an integrated, data-driven, concierge service partnering with a selective group of fertility doctors. Upside potential is 2x current price in the next 18 months. Overview Progyny Inc. (Nasdaq: PGNY), “PGNY” or the “Company”, based in New York, NY, is the leading independent fertility and family building benefits manager. Progyny serves as a value-add benefits manager sold to employers who want to improve their benefits coverage and retain and attract the best employees. Progyny offers a comprehensive solution and is truly disrupting the fertility industry. There is no standard fertility cycle, but the below is a good approximation of possible workflows: https://preview.redd.it/7aip8pna9zi51.png?width=941&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ef868a67eae10534bac254ab58fb3d4295aef37
Patient is referred to fertility center for evaluation for Assisted Reproductive Technology (“ART”) procedures, including in-vitro fertilization (“IVF “) and intrauterine insemination (“IUI”). Both can be aided by pharmaceuticals that stimulate egg production in the female patient. IVF involves the fertilization of the egg and sperm in the lab, while IUI is direct injection of the sperm sample into the uterus. Often, IUI is done first as it is less expensive. As success rates of IVF have increased, IUI utilization will likely fall.
Sperm washing is the separation of the sperm from the semen sample for embryo creation, and it enhances the freezing capacity of the sperm. Typically, a wash solution is added to the sample and then a centrifuge is used to undergo separation. This is done in both IUI and IVF.
Some OB/GYN platforms are pursuing vertical integration and offering fertility services directly. The OB would need to be credentialed at the lab / procedure center.
Specialty pharmacy arranges delivery of temperature sensitive Rx. Drug regimens include ovarian stimulation to increase the number of eggs or hormone manipulation to better time fertility cycles, among others.
Oocyte retrieval / aspiration is done under deep-sedation anesthesia in a procedure room, typically in the attached IVF lab. Transfer cycle implantation is done using ultrasound guidance without anesthesia. (Anecdotally, we have been told that only REIs can perform an egg retrieval. We have not been able to validate this).
Many clinics house frozen embryos on-site, while some clinics contract with 3rd parties to manage the process. During an IVF cycle, embryos are created from all available eggs. Single-embryo transfer (“SET”) is becoming the norm, which means that multiple embryos are then cryopreserved to use in the future. A fertility preservation cycle ends here with a female storing eggs for long-term usage (e.g. a woman in her young 20s deciding to freeze her eggs for starting a family later).
Common nomenclature refers to an IVF cycle or an IVF cycle with Intracytoplasmic sperm injection (“ICSI”). From a technical perspective, ICSI and IVF are different forms of embryo fertilization within an ART cycle.
ART clinics are frequently offering ancillary services such as embryo / egg adoption or surrogacy services. More frequently, there are independent companies that help with the adoption process and finding surrogates.
ART procedures are broken into two different types of cycles: a banking cycle is the process by which eggs are gathered, embryos are created and then transferred to cryopreservation. A transfer cycle is typically the transfer of a thawed embryo to the female for potential pregnancy. If a pregnancy does not occur, another transfer cycle ensues. Many REIs are moving towards a banking cycle, freezing all embryos, then transfer cycles until embryos are exhausted or a birth occurs. If a birth occurs with the first embryo, patients can keep their embryos for future pregnancy attempts, donate the embryos to a donation center, or request the destruction of the embryos.
The Company started as Auxogen Biosciences, an egg-freezing provider before changing business models to focus on providing a full-range of fertility benefits. In 2016, they launched with their first 5 employer clients and 110,000 members. As of June 30, 2020, the Company provided benefits to 134 employers and ~2.2 million members, year over year growth of 63%. 134 employers is less than 2% of the total addressable market of “approximately 8,000 self-insured employers in the United States (excluding quasi-governmental entities, such as universities and school systems, and labor unions) who have a minimum of 1,000 employees and represent approximately 69 million potential covered lives in total. Our current member base of 2.1 million represents only 3% of our total market opportunity.” The utilization rate for all Progyny members was less than 1% in 2019, offering significant leverageable upside as the topic of fertility becomes less taboo.
Fertility has historically been a process fraught one-sided knowledge, even more so than the typical physician procedure. Despite the increased availability of information on the internet, women who undergo fertility treatments have often described the experience as “byzantine” and “chaotic”. Outdated treatment models without the latest technology (or the latest tech offered as expensive a la carte options) continue to be the norm at traditional insurance providers as well as clinics that do not accept insurance. Progyny’s differentiated approach, including a high-touch concierge level of service for patients and data-driven decision making at the clinical level, has led to an NPS of 72 for fertility benefits and 80 for the integrated, optional pharmacy benefit. Typically, fertility benefits offered by large insurance carriers are add-ons to existing coverage subject to a lifetime maximum while simultaneously requiring physicians to try IUI 3 – 6 times before authorizing IVF. The success rate of IUI, also known as artificial insemination, is typically less than 10%, even when performed with medication. As mentioned in Progyny’s IPO “A patient with mandated fertility step therapy protocol may be required to undergo three to six cycles of IUI, which has an average success rate range of 5% to 15%, takes place over three to six months and can cost up to $4,000 per cycle (or an aggregate of approximately $12,000 to $24,000), according to FertilityIQ. Multiple rounds of mandated IUI is likely to exhaust the patient's lifetime dollar maximum fertility benefits and waste valuable time before more effective IVF treatment can be begun.” Success Rates for IVF IVF success rates vary greatly by age but were 49% on average for women younger than 35. The graph below shows success rates by all clinics by age group for those that did at least 10 cycles in the specific age group. As an example, for those in the ages 35 – 37, out of 456 available clinics, 425 performed at least 10 cycles with a median success rate of 39.7%. https://preview.redd.it/d2l5dtw89zi51.png?width=4990&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ff2ab9948b94419558a27ac861d4e498dce6713 Progyny’s Smart Cycle is the proprietary method the company has chosen as a “currency” for fertility benefits. As opposed to a traditional fee-for-service model with step-up methods, employers may choose to provide between 2 and unlimited Smart Cycles to employees. This enables employees to choose the provider’s best method. Included in the Smart Cycle, and another indicator of the Company’s forward-thinking methodology, are treatment options that deliver better outcomes (PGS, ICSI, multiple embryo freezing with future implantations). https://preview.redd.it/np577a389zi51.png?width=734&format=png&auto=webp&s=c061a2b24c8515890ba204479b4677893dabf755 As detailed in the chart above, a patient could undergo an IVF cycle that freezes all embryos (3/4 of a Smart Cycle), then transfer 5 frozen embryos (1/4 cycle each; each transfer would occur at peak ovulation, which would take at least 5 months) and use only 2 Smart Cycles. Alternatively, if the patient froze all embryos and got pregnant on the first embryo transfer, they would only use one cycle. Before advances in vitrification (freezing), patients could not be sure that an embryo created in the lab and frozen for later use would be viable, so using only one embryo at a time seemed wasteful. Now, as freezing technology has advanced, undergoing one pharmaceutical regime, one oocyte collection procedure, creating as many embryos as possible, and then transferring one embryo back into the uterus while freezing the rest provides the highest ROI. If the first transferred embryo fails to implant or otherwise does not lead to a baby, the patient can simply thaw the next embryo and try implantation again next month. Included in each Smart Cycle is pre-implantation genetic sequencing (“PGS”) on all available embryos and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (“ICSI”). PGS uses next-generation sequencing technology to determine the viability and sex of the embryo while ICSI is a process whereby a sperm is directly inserted into the egg to start fertilization, rather than allowing the sperm to penetrate the egg naturally. ICSI has a slightly higher rate of successful fertilization (as opposed to simply leaving the egg and sperm in the petri dish). Because Progyny’s experience is denominated in cycles of care, not simply dollars, patients and doctors can focus on what procedures offer the best return. 30% of the Company’s existing network of doctors do not accept insurance of any kind, other than Progyny, which speaks to the value that is provided to doctors and employers. For patients not looking to get pregnant, Progyny offers egg freezing as well. Progyny started as an egg-freezing manager, which allows a woman to preserve her fertility and manage her biological clock. As mentioned previously, pregnancy outcomes vary significantly and align closely with the age of the egg. Egg freezing is designed to allow a woman to save her younger eggs until she is ready to start a family. From an employer’s perspective, keeping younger women in the work force for longer is a cost savings. Vitrification technology has improved significantly since “Freeze your eggs, Free Your Career” was the headline on Bloomberg Businesweek in 2014, but we still don’t yet know the pregnancy rates for women who froze their eggs 5 years ago, but early results are promising and on par with IVF rates for women of similar ages now. From a female perspective, the egg freezing process is not an easy one. The patient is still required to inject themselves with stimulation drugs and the egg retrieval process is the same as in the IVF process (under sedation). The same number of days out of work are required. Using the SmartCycle benefit above as an example, the egg freezing process would require ½ of a Smart Cycle. The annual payment required to the clinic is typically included in the benefits package but may require out-of-pocket expenses covered by the employee. Contrary to popular belief, IVF pregnancies do not have a higher rate of multiples (twins, triplets, etc.), rather in order to reduce out of pocket costs, REIs have transferred multiple embryos to the patient, in the hopes of achieving a pregnancy. If you have struggled for years to get pregnant, and the doctor is suggesting that transferring 3 embryos at once is your best chance at success, you are unlikely to complain, nor are you likely to selectively eliminate an implanted embryo because you now have twins. There are several factors that are making it more likely / acceptable to transfer one embryo at a time, enabling Progyny’s success. https://preview.redd.it/48vk9gc69zi51.png?width=953&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c75a2771a1dd9a079074331b317451f076725ca From the Company: “According to a study published in the American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology that analyzed the total costs of care over 400,000 deliveries between 2005 and 2010, as adjusted for inflation, the maternity and perinatal healthcare costs attributable to a set of twins are approximately $150,000 on average, more than four times the comparable costs attributable to singleton births of approximately $35,000, and often exceed this average. In the case of triplets, the costs escalate significantly and average $560,000, sometimes extending upwards of $1.0 million.” “Progyny's selective network of high-quality fertility specialists consistently demonstrate a strong adherence to best practices with a substantially higher single embryo transfer rate. As a result, our members experience significantly fewer pregnancies with multiples (e.g., twins or triplets). Multiples are associated with a higher probability of adverse medical conditions for the mother and babies, and as a byproduct, significantly escalate the costs for employers. Our IVF multiples rate is 3.6% compared to the national average of 16.1%. A lower multiples rate is the primary means to achieving lower high-risk maternity and NICU expenses for our clients.” An educated and supported patient leads to better outcomes. Each patient gets a patient care advocate who interacts with a patient, on average, 15x during their usage of fertility benefits - before treatment, during treatment and post-pregnancy. The Company provides phone-based clinical education and support seven days a week and the Company’s proprietary “UnPack It” call allows patients to speak to a licensed pharmacy clinician who describes the medications included in the package (which contains an average of 20 items per cycle), provides instruction on proper medication administration, and ensures that cycles start on time. The Company’s single medication authorization and delivery led to no missed or delayed cycles in 2018. Previous conference calls have made note of the fact that the Company would like to purchase their own specialty pharmacy and own every aspect of that interaction, which should provide a lift to gross margins. This would allow PGNY to manage both the medication and the treatment, leading to decreased cost of fertility drugs. Under larger carrier programs, carriers manage access to treatment, but PBM manages access to medications, which can lead to a delay in cycle commencement. Progyny Rx can only be added to the Progyny fertility benefits solution (not offered without subscription to base fertility benefits) and offers patients a potentially lower cost fertility drug benefit, while streamlining what is often a frustrating part of the consumer experience. The Progyny Rx solution reduces dispensing and delivery times and eliminates the possibility that a cycle does not start on time due to a specialty pharmacy not delivering medication. Progyny bills employers for fertility medication as it is dispensed in accordance with the individual Smart Cycle contract. Progyny Rx was introduced in 2018 and represented only 5% of total revenue in 2018. By June 30, 2020, Progyny Rx represented 28% of total revenue and increased 15% y/y. The growth rate should slow and move more in line with the fertility benefits solution as the existing customer base adds it to their package. Progyny Rx can save employers 5% on spend for typical carrier fertility benefits or 21% of the drug spend. Prior authorization is not required, and the pre-screened network of specialty pharmacies can deliver within 48 hours. Additionally, PGNY has 1-year contracts, as opposed to 3 – 5 years like standard PBMs, but with guaranteed minimums, allowing them to purchase at discounts and pass part of the savings on to employers – another reason the attachment rate is so high. Large, Underpenetrated Addressable Market Total cycle counts are increasing (below, in 000s), including both freezing cycles and intended-pregnancy cycles. Acceleration in cycle volume is likely driven by a declining birth rate as women wait later in life to start a family, resulting in reduced fertility, as well as the number of non-traditional (LGBT and single parents). Conservatively, we believe cycles can double in the next 8 years, a 7% CAGR. https://preview.redd.it/y6y7jb559zi51.png?width=943&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cc5cdde7c6583d8e943d2675ad3b6ae85f818de Progyny believes its addressable market is the $6.7B spent on infertility treatments in 2017, but these numbers could easily understate the available market and potential patients as over 50% of people in the US who are diagnosed as infertile do not seek treatment. Additionally, according to the Company, 35% of its covered universe did not previously have fertility benefits in place previously, meaning there is a growing population of people who are now considering their fertility options. According to Willis Towers, Watson, ~ 55% of employers offered fertility benefits in 2018. A quick review of CDC stats and FertilityIQ shows a significant disparity in outcomes and emotions for those who are seeking treatment. While technology in the embryo lab is improving rapidly and success rates between clinics should be converging, there continue to be significant outliers. Clinics that follow what are now generally accepted procedures (follicle stimulating hormones, a 5-day incubation period and PGS to determine embryo viability) have seen success rates of at least 40%. There continue to be several providers that offer a mini-IVF cycle or natural IVF cycle. Designed to appeal to cost conscious cash payors, the on average $5,000 costs, is simply IVF without prescription drugs or any add-ons such as PGS. However, the success rates are on par with IUI and there is an abundance of patients over 40 using the service, where the success rates are already low. Additionally, success stories at these clinics frequently align with what is perceived as the worst parts of the process: One clinic offering a natural cycle IVF has a rating at FertilityIQ of ~8.0 with 60% of people strongly recommending it. This clinic performed 2,000 cycles in 2018 (the most recently available data from the CDC), making it one of the top 10 most active fertility center in the US. Their success rate for women under 35 was 23%, as opposed to the national average of 50% for all clinics. For women over 43, the average success rate for the most active 40 clinics in this demographic was 5.0% this clinics success rate was 0.4%. The lower success rate is likely due to the lack of pre-cycle drugs and PGS, but the success rate and the average rating is hard to understand. Part of this could be to the customer service provided by the clinic, or the perceived benefit of having to go into the office less often for check-ups when not doing a medication driven cycle. . Reviews from other clinics with high average customer ratings, but low success rates include: - “start of a journey that consisted of multiple IUI’s with numerous medications, but they were not successful.” - After an IVF retrieval, the couple had two viable embryos, both were transferred the next month” - “The couple started with a series of IUI treatments, three in total that were not successful.” - “After a fresh transfer of two embryos, again another unsuccessful cycle”. - “He suggested transferring 2 due to higher implantation rates, but there is increased rate of twins “ Valuation https://preview.redd.it/tqcykjm39zi51.png?width=6358&format=png&auto=webp&s=b63fd53c054ac5cbacaf9ccc734c7e73f0ea3c32 Progyny’s comps have typically been other high-growth companies that went public in the last two years: 1Life Healthcare (ONEM), Accolade (ACCD), Health Catalyst (HCAT), Health Equity (HQY), Livongo (LVGO), Phreesia (PHR), as well as Teladoc (TDOC). Despite revenue growth that outpaces these companies, PGNY’s revenue multiple of 4.4x 2021E revenue is a 40% discount to the peer group median. PNGY’s lower gross margin is likely limiting the multiple. However, Progyny is the one of the few profitable companies in this group and the only one with realistic EBTIDA margins. SG&A leverage is the most likely driver of increased EBITDA and can be achieved by utilizing data to improve clinical outcomes in the future, but primarily by increased productive of the sales reps, including larger employer wins and larger employee utilization. Perhaps the best direct comp is Bright Horizons (BFAM). BFAM offers childcare as a healthcare benefit where employees can use pre-tax dollars to pay for childcare. BFAM offers both onsite childcare centers built to the employer’s specification (owned by the employer and operated by BFAM), as well as shared-site locations that are open to the public and back-up sitter services. Currently, PGNY is trading at 4.4x 2021E Revenue, in-line with BFAM’s 4.3x multiple. I would argue that PGNY should trade significantly higher given the asset-lite business model and higher ROIC. Recent Results Post Covid-19, fertility treatments came back faster than anticipated, combined with disciplined operations, PGNY drove revenue and EBITDA above 2Q2020 consensus estimates. Utilization is still below historical levels, but management’s visibility led to excellent FY21 revenue estimates (consensus is around $555M, a y/y increase of 62%. 2Q2020 revenue increased 15% to $64.6M, and EBITDA increased 18% to $6.5M, primarily driven by SBC as the 15% revenue was not enough to leverage the additional G&A people hired in the last 18 months. The end of the quarter as fertility docs opened their offices back up for remote visits saw better operating margin. Despite the shutdown in fertility clinics during COVID-19, Progyny was able to successfully add several clients. “The significant majority of the clinics in our network chose to adhere to ASRMs guidelines, and our volume of fertility treatments and dispensing of the related medications declined significantly over the latter part of the quarter. . . Through the end of March and into the first half of April, we saw significant reductions in the utilization of the benefit by our members down to as low as 15%, when compared to the early part of Q1 were 15% of what we consider to be normal levels. In April, the New York Department of Health declared that fertility is an essential health service and stated that clinics have the authority to treat their patients and perform procedures during the pandemic. Then on April 24, ASRM updated its guidelines which were reaffirmed on May 11, advising that practices could reopen for all procedures so long as it could be done in a measured way that is safe for patients and staff.” Revenue increased by $33.8 million, 72% in 1Q2020. This increase is primarily due to a $19.0 million, or 47% increase, in revenue from fertility benefits. Additionally, the Company experienced a $14.8 million or 216% increase in revenue from specialty pharmacy. Revenue growth was due to the increase in the number of clients and covered lives. Progyny Rx revenue growth outpaced the fertility benefits revenue since Progyny Rx went live with only a select number of clients on January 1, 2018 and has continued to add both new and existing fertility benefit solution clients since its initial launch. Competition The only true competition is the large insurance companies, but, as mentioned previously, they are not delivering care the same way. WINFertility is the largest manager of fertility insurance benefits on behalf of Anthem, Aetna and Cigna and are not directly involved in the delivery of care. Carrot is a Silicon Valley startup that recently raised $24M in a Series B with several brand name customers (StitchFix, Slack) where they focus on negotiating discounts at fertility clinics for their customers, who then use after-tax dollars from their employers. Risks to Thesis Though there is risk a large carrier may switch to a model similar to Progyny’s, I believe it is unlikely given the established relationships with REIs at the clinic level, the difficulty of managing a more selective network of providers, and the lack of interest shown previously in eliminating the IUI. It is more likely a carrier would acquire Progyny first.
Sometimes the terms gross margin and gross profit are used interchangeably, which is a mistake. While they measure similar metrics, gross margin measures the percentage (or dollar amount) of the comparison of a product's cost to its sale price, while gross profit measures the percentage (or dollar amount) of profit from the sale of the product. What is gross margin? Definition of Gross Margin. Gross margin is the amount remaining after a retailer or manufacturer subtracts its cost of goods sold from its net sales.In other words, gross margin is the retailer's or manufacturer's profit before subtracting its selling, general and administrative, and interest expenses.. Gross Margin Can be an Amount or an Expense Margin borrowing: $2,000 – In order to carry a margin debit balance or sell a security short, you must have at least $2,000 of margin equity in the account. Day trading: $25,000 – If you’re classified as a day trader, your account must maintain $25,000 in account equity to continue day trading in the account. To remove the day-trader The gross margin represents the portion of each dollar of revenue that the company retains as gross profit. For example, if a company's recent quarterly gross margin is 35%, that means it retains Margin vs markup. The difference between gross margin and markup is small but important. The former is the ratio of profit to the sale price and the latter is the ratio of profit to the purchase price (Cost of Goods Sold). In layman's terms, profit is also known as either markup or margin when we're dealing with raw numbers, not percentages.
WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GROSS PROFIT MARGIN AND NET PROFIT MARGIN WITH TRADING ACCOUNT
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